According to a new report by Coinbase Research, an improved macroeconomic environment, increasing institutional interest in digital assets, and regulatory clarity could set the stage for a constructive outlook in crypto markets in the second half of 2025. Particularly, improvements in indicators related to the US economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are cited as factors boosting optimism in the market.
Macroeconomic Developments and Market Reactions
Following a brief contraction in US economic growth and trade disruptions in the first quarter of 2025, the latest data points towards a recovery. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow data shows a significant increase, rising to 3.8% on a quarterly basis as of early June. Expected interest rate cuts and less aggressive trade policies are reducing recession fears and increasing investors’ risk appetite.
The report also suggests that the declining dominance of the US dollar and the search for inflation hedges might bolster Bitcoin’s appeal. However, high yields on US Treasury bonds could remain a decisive factor in investors’ crypto preferences. For altcoins, the anticipated rise might be limited unless a specific catalyst emerges.
Institutional Crypto Asset Strategies
Public companies can now more easily add digital assets to their balance sheets, thanks to accounting rule changes in 2024. The “mark-to-market” accounting practice allows these assets to be recorded at current value. While companies’ shift towards crypto assets increases demand, it also introduces some systemic risks. Notably, firms financing digital asset acquisitions with convertible debt might be forced to sell if refinancing options dry up or if crypto prices plummet sharply.
Coinbase Research commented, “As corporate interest in crypto increases, new risks may emerge in the markets.”
Regulatory Clarity and New Legislative Developments
The report emphasizes that developments in the regulatory arena could change the market structure. Recently approved in the Senate, the GENIUS Act aims to clarify asset regulations and is set for discussion in the House of Representatives. Additionally, the CLARITY Act, presented as a comprehensive market structuring bill, aims to clarify the oversight of digital assets and delineate the roles of both the SEC and CFTC. If enacted, issuers and investors could benefit from more transparent rules.
The SEC’s agenda includes crypto asset-related and multi-asset investment fund applications. Applications for ETFs containing staking and altcoins are also under review. Initial decisions are expected in July, with the remaining applications to be concluded by the end of October.
According to the report, Bitcoin 
$105,486 is in an advantageous position in the second half of the year, benefiting from macro and structural tailwinds. In contrast, altcoins face regulatory uncertainties and liquidity issues, presenting a more cautious outlook.
Market growth expectations seem linked to both regulatory changes and the consistent release of new financial products. The strategies of institutions and forthcoming decisions will play a key role in shaping market dynamics in the future.
All assessments in the report highlight the volatile nature of the future of crypto markets, with opportunities and risks increasing simultaneously for investors. The growing institutional and regulatory interest in crypto assets might lead to significant changes in market dynamics in the long run. A reduction in regulatory uncertainties and the introduction of new financial products are signaling the possibility of a strengthened trust environment and more stable growth in the markets. It is recommended that investors closely monitor market developments and regulatory innovations during this process.
